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 Betreff des Beitrags: The Buffalo Bills have been up and down with penalties
BeitragVerfasst: 06 Mär 2019, 03:16 
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Registriert: 12 Jul 2018, 00:27
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all year (mostly up). Against the Indianapolis Colts Youth Marcus Murphy Jersey , the Bills managed to significantly cut back from their dreadful penalty performance against the Texans the week before. That’s the good news. The bad news is that it sure as heck didn’t get them any closer to a win. Also, the Bills continue to be on the cutting edge of new and exciting formations. Standard and Advanced MetricsPenalty CountFor Buffalo, the assessed count is a touch above the league average. The “true” count, or total flags thrown is a little under the league average. So we’ll be generous and say the Bills had a pretty average day in how many flags were tossed. The Colts fall cleanly below average for flags with only four assessed. A fifth was called but declined by Buffalo. Penalty YardsIf you check the official stats you’ll see a different number for the Bills on assessed yards. My number is adjusted based on the illegal formation penalty that’s described thoroughly below. As a result of my adjustment, the Bills land a decent amount over league average. My adjustment was for 13 yards. As a result, you could make the argument the Bills were average here as well. The Bills did not negate any yardage via penalty which is good news. While the Colts did (13 yards negated), they still come out ahead of Buffalo. Penalty HarmIndianapolis ColtsThe Colts had a few penalties that could have been drive killers but we clearly saw that it didn’t slow them down a whole lot. The declined offensive pass interference on Chester Rogers is naturally a boo-boo with zero harm. Kemoko Turay’s offside flag was yardage only for another boo-boo. Rogers’ illegal block above the waist was only nine yards difference from the outcome of the original play as it negated a one-yard loss. As a result it falls under 1.0 Harm as well. Quenton Nelson’s offensive holding call wiped out three yards and Eric Ebron’s penalty wiped out eleven. The Colts finished with 4.8 Harm, which is a very good day. None of the Colts’ penalties were especially noteworthy, so instead of a clip of an Indianapolis flag, let’s check in on Tre’Davious White’s new penchant for being penalized. Against the Texans, White was called for three flags. While none of the three were truly blown calls, it felt like White was being picked on a bit by the refs. In this case, it looks like he earned it. Buffalo BillsOf the seven penalties, four were boo-boos. Jordan Phillips’ offside, Kyle Williams’ neutral zone infraction and Jordan Mills’ false start were all five yards and that’s it. We’ll come back to the illegal formation in just a moment. We’ve already covered White’s DPI. Kelvin Benjamin didn’t start the fight Youth Dion Dawkins Jersey , but his retaliation certainly could be considered unnecessary roughness. The chart contains an error on this, as it was actually assessed for 14 yards. EDIT: I fixed the charts. Let’s take a look at this formation issue to discuss the last two flags. On the field, this was called on number 94 (no one on the Bills roster wears this number) and was assessed as one yard. I attributed it to Kyle Williams and called it good for 14. The NFL rules indicate “A Team B [The Bills are team B here] player, who is within one yard of the line of scrimmage, must have his entire body outside the snapper’s shoulder pads at the snap.” Williams has an inch or two aligned with the snapper’s shoulder pad and the ref is in perfect position to see it. I adjusted the yardage as the Colts initially line up at the 15 for the extra point. This snap is an anomaly in the NFL in that it’s the only one where a team chooses where the line of scrimmage is. Penalties such as illegal formation result in a state called “no play” where the previous play is essentially erased. The play is redone but with the assessed penalty in consideration. What this means is that the “no play” status allowed the Colts to choose the line of scrimmage a second time but with the penalty in effect. Choice A is another kick at the nine-yard line, or go for two with half the distance to the goal (at the one yard line). They decided to go for two. To come up with the harm rating we then get 14 yards assessed - 1 point = 0.4 Harm. I elected to mitigate the harm by subtracting the point the penalty took off the board. If the Bills made a stop this would have been an instance of a “good” penalty.Another anomaly with the extra point/two point conversion is that they exist out of official time. Put another way, it’s not counted as a true down. The refs put this concept to maximum use when Hughes was called for unsportsmanlike conduct after the illegal formation. When a penalty occurs between downs, it can be assessed on the next play. The next “play” was the two point conversion. As this isn’t a true down they carried it over to the kickoff which is a true play. Despite all the wacky and obscure rules the Bills put to the test in this game, they finished with only 6.2 Harm. It’s not that the Bills didn’t have self inflicted wounds against Indianapolis. They just came from aspects of the game other than penalties.Penalty Recap: Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens Welcome, fans of the Buffalo Bills, to the week one penalty recap. I have some good news and some bad news. The good news is that Penalty Harm returns with the regular season! The bad news is that the Bills offered up plenty of data points. The worst news is that the frogurt is also cursed. Standard and Advanced MetricsPenalty countsNeither the Buffalo Bills nor Baltimore Ravens did well using the traditional metric of “how many flags were thrown.” The 2018 season kicked off with an average of eight flags assessed per team (the left set of bars). Both the Bills and Ravens helped to raise this average. Both teams were even worse when it came to flags thrown, landing at twelve apiece. For those of you new to my recaps, I put stock in offset and declined penalties, as they help create a sense of a team’s tendency to commit penalties. The term “True Count” is used to reflect the total yellow laundry. Penalty yardsDespite a high count, the Buffalo Bills were nearly average in assessed yards. That suggests a tendency to skew toward procedural penalties Youth Corey Bojorquez Jersey , such as false starts. We’ll see if that’s what happened shortly. The Ravens, then, were even more skewed in that direction. While they were one higher than league average in assessed count, they were well below that average in assessed yards. For true yards, any positive gains wiped out by a penalty are counted in that total. We’ll have a couple examples of this below. The NFL does track a similar statistic, but not exactly as I do it. Therefore my metric of “true yards” is not available league wide. What the chart easily shows though is that the Bills negated 24 yards in addition to their assessed yards. Baltimore only negated 17. Penalty HarmBaltimore RavensFor a brief rundown of what penalty harm is, an explanation can be found at the bottom. For those of you familiar with the project, here we go.At 1.0 Harm or under, the penalty is typically a boo-boo rather than a “shot ourselves in the foot” situation. The Ravens had quite a few of these. For these or any other penalty I don’t explain here, feel free to ask away in the comments. There’s oodles of data that isn’t included every week. Matt Judon was lucky that his unnecessary roughness call occurred so close to the end zone. It was assessed as eight yards (half the distance to the goal) and gave the Bills a first down from second for the remainder of the 1.8 harm. Alex Lewis wiped out a 14-yard gain to land at 2.4 Harm (10 yards plus 14 yards). Brandon Carr was called for defensive pass interference. He set the Bills up with a first down and gave them a free 20 yards for a total of 3.0 Harm. This was the fourth play in a row with a penalty and gave the Bills their best chance at a touchdown all day. Judon’s flag kicked off the chain of events. Wedged in between were flags from Dion Dawkins and Vlad Ducasse. And yeah, the GIFs are carrying over into the regular season. Below, we have the most egregious penalty of the day for Baltimore. Willie Snead’s offensive pass interference flag wiped out a touchdown, which is about the worst way a penalty can hurt a team. The 7.0 Harm for that factor adds to the 13 yards (10 assessed, 3 impacted) for 8.3 Harm. Snead’s actions were necessary to help the Ravens score, too Womens Tre'Davious White Jersey , but he could easily have avoided the flag by being more subtle in his “rub” route. The Baltimore Ravens ended the day with 18.5 Total Harm. After doing these for quite some time, a team should aim for a number at 10.0 or below. Low teens usually indicates some impact on the game. If the Ravens hadn’t run away on the scoreboard, their penalties would be a talking point. Buffalo BillsA repeated point that I’ve seen this week is that the Bills wiped out a ton of big plays via penalty. Eh. Not really. Only four penalties wiped out any gain. Three of these were for less than five yards. Only John Miller’s holding call (4.4 Harm) negated a big play. The 15 yards he wiped out from Josh Allen to Jeremy Kerley came in the fourth quarter when the game was already long lost. Also critical to the conversation is that the Miller flag and only one other on the day negated a first down.One could argue that the high volume of penalties disrupted the offensive rhythm, which is a more valid argument. To be clear, though, penalties were not a major factor in explaining Buffalo’s offensive struggles. Deon Lacey made a critical error and lucked out when Tremaine Edmunds bailed him out on the next snap by forcing a fumble. The Ravens were 4th and 5 backed up on their own end of the field and Lacey was caught in the neutral zone on the punt attempt. This gave the Ravens a fresh set of downs, and earned Lacey a 3.5 Harm flag. Taron Johnson had the worst penalty of the day for the Bills at 4.8 Harm (seen below). Johnson’s defensive pass interference gave up 28 yards and two free downs. The pass was, in all probability, uncatchable, making this call a fringe one. How the contact is sold by the “victim” might also have been a factor. While the Bills didn’t have any single really bad penalty, they had several that were pretty bad. They combined for 20.4 Harm, which is a very bad day. What is Penalty Harm? Traditional metrics of count and yards give very poor context into how badly a penalty impacted the game. Deon Lacey’s five yarder is a prime example. On the stat sheet it goes down the same as a false start, but it’s easy to see the two penalties are drastically different in outcome. Penalty Harm is an attempt to quantify other ways in which a flag hurts a team to red flag the worst penalties for discussion. How is it assessed? 0.1 unit of harm for every yard assessed0.1 unit of harm for every yard negated by penalty1.0 unit of harm for every down the penalty gave back to the opponent (or took away from your team like intentional grounding)3.0 units for negating a field goal, 7.0 for a touchdown4.0 units for negating a turnover
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